CCulture

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

$11.5KVolume

Jan 1, 2028Resolves

433dleft

45Comments

Price history

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market open: Jan 7, 2026, 11:09 PM
Market closes: After the outcome occurs
Projected payout: 1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

Live community discussion.

BA
BABELCONSTELJun 12
No shot it happens before 2028
OR
ORO9696Jun 12
@BABELCONSTEL you can exit and probably make all the cash back on SpaceX dillusional numbers but prefer being stucked here. And yes Doge-1 is happening very soon, you just need to track news which you obviously not doing. You know why they added the June 2027 bracket? It’s not a coincidence, because it’s planned on next lunar mission this year and it can slip to Q1. Goodluck wasting time btw
BA
BABELCONSTELJun 12
Ill put up $500,000 if someone wants to take the other side of it
OR
ORO9696Jun 12
you are little bit weird, it’s not about whether it’s going to happen or not, even though I think it happens this year with high probability. It’s about how you use funds, there are so many free markets or risk free options than that 4% you trying to milk here. You will have to wait until the end of the year even if it resolves to your side. There is a market if Trump goes to space in 2026, plenty of shares at 97c, you think it’s going to happen? obviously not, nobody buys that because it’s “stuck” liquidity for a year…
OR
ORO9696Jun 9
DOGE-1 to the Moon is still underway with years of development and a recent satellite upgrading engineering sprint to make it on the next feasible Lunar mission with SpaceX as long foretold! Stay tuned for updates from us as we advance toward the great 12U Lunar CubeSat launch! GG
SI
Silver-BasementMay 6
dema bable
TE
Terrific-CaseApr 22
Check out my detailed breakdown as to why doge-1 will launch this year on twitter @SylwesterUrban7
♥ 3
OR
ORO9696Apr 22
Good analysis, there were only good signs until now, just a matter of time. Why would they put a timer if it wouldn’t be happening this year?
♥ 2
YT
ytr151Apr 19
What s happening?
CH
CHROME-216Apr 21
probably insiders, too many new accounts or holding only this position
♥ 2
WO
woevaApr 13
Patriots loss just costed BABELCONSTEL $122k, Doge will be the slowest drag on his portfolio actually, 'the hedge' 😅
♥ 2
CH
CHROME-216Apr 13
Instead of focusing on sports markets to make it all back, dude is focused on how to lock in as much as possible in this one 😂
LA
Lavish-ThingApr 15
Get Shorty
CH
CHROME-216Apr 11
Never saw a guy who would bet big just to prove he is right lol, without any beneficial return. What options BABEL has? Exit at 93c making a little bit of profit and not wait until Dec 31 or wait until the end for additional 3-4k with risk of losing it all. Since he is not even trying to exit looks like he is ready to risk it for peanuts or maybe there is no liquidity for him to exit because people holding too good odds. Anyway good signs already appearing, those who tracking they probably know. Goodluck x2, see ya in May.
♥ 7
LA
Lavish-ThingApr 12
You could make a better return in a checking account with zero risk.....
♥ 3
CH
CHROME-216Apr 8
IM-3 and Doge-1 will be confirmed in May. SpaceX IPO “accidentally” planned right after for mid summer and right before Doge-1 launch in September. Everything will be used to hype up the IPO. 2026 is the Moon year, Artemis launched and someone on NO thinks it’s hard to launch a 40 kg CubeSat that been years in development. Goodluck lol
♥ 5
Nibiru2Apr 6
Thanks BABELCONSTEL for exit liquidity
♥ 2
TE
Terrific-CaseApr 5
Can we just appreciate babels commitment to losing money. Just check his history :D
♥ 4
LA
Lavish-ThingMar 17
The stars are aligning for 2026 launch!
♥ 5
Nibiru2Mar 1
There is a chance it happens this year
♥ 7
BA
BABELCONSTELMar 2
I'm down to bet more if you want. I just don't see the team pulling it off with all the delays that have happened since 2021. It will happen in 2027 in my view.
WE
wevaMar 22
pnl atl..
BA
BABELCONSTELMar 23
you have $20 LOL
WO
woevaMar 30
hes in profit, u donated almost half a milly $ to other players lmfao
BA
BABELCONSTELFeb 24
There is no chance it happens this year
PumpFeb 24
Have you tried to make any due diligence before aping 260k$ into this? You could farm probably same if not higher APY by staking your USDC lmao. Try to ask Grok or any AI about probability of happening it this year if you are too lazy to do it. And btw you can check the official project site ([link removed]) that shows a countdown targeting September 13, 2026. It might not happen this year, but since the CubeSat is potentially ready and Doge-1 got all gov permissions necessary I dont see many arguments why it cant be this year. So in conclusion the real probability is about 10-20%, specially when SpaceX is now more focused on Lunar missions rather than Mars. Its happening either this or next year with probability of 96%.
♥ 1
BA
BABELCONSTELFeb 27
If you are so sure double up your position. I will provide more than enough liquidity for you to ape another 50,000 yes shares at around 5 cents. According to your "math" that should be a good rate compared to the 10-20% you claim the true odds are.
BA
BABELCONSTELFeb 27
I don't believe in the team or doge-1 happening this year. There are too many delays that have happened since 2021. I just don't see them doing it this year at all. I saw the website but targets change and deadlines get missed the only chance it has of happening this year is in late Q3 and if that doesn't happen then its 2027 imo.
PumpFeb 27
that is solid argument, you probably right
BA
BABELCONSTELFeb 14
Why are you all selling?
PumpFeb 14
They secretly launched Doge-1 in 2025, so the market is being cancelled
YT
ytr151Jan 24
Stop Babel
♥ 3
BA
BABELCONSTELJan 24
Stop?
Nibiru2Jan 26
Bro, why you so sure that the launch won't happen this year?
♥ 10
Nibiru2Jan 16
The top and only No guy is so brave and confident. The dude sets the probability himself
♥ 5
PumpJan 15
Someone explain me why would you lock 200k$ on a market for 6+ months when you can get almost same ROI by staking usdc on any cex/dex risk free with possibility to withdraw anytime? While it is still projected to happen in 2026 with IM-3 mission...It says launch date 2026 [link removed] + Samuel asked for this market to be created and launched a website with Doge-1 merch hmmmmm
♥ 4
Optimus-Jan 20
generational retard
♥ 1
AL
aliento15Feb 4
What are you suggesting?
Nibiru2Mar 30
Top NO dude blocked the money here so he wouldn't lose it on other markets.
♥ 1
Optimus-Jan 9
to the moooon!
♥ 9
HazlittJan 9
Soaring into the universe, vast and boundless
♥ 1
Nibiru2Jan 9
Early 2026 Final launch readiness and review. Mid 2026 DOGE-1 launch and deployment. Late 2026 Lunar orbit insertion, data and billboard operations [link removed]
♥ 7
MO
moistcookieJan 9
wont be until Q3 in 2027 buddy
♥ 1
Nibiru2Jan 9
why?
♥ 1
ZebulomJan 8
It’s already January 7th and we don't have a 'firm' T-minus date yet. It’s a rideshare mission, which means if the main payload (like Intuitive Machines) has a hiccup, DOGE-1 gets pushed back again.

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