⚽Sports

Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

$10.2KVolume

Oct 31, 2026Resolves

81dleft

833Comments

Price history

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Market open: —
Market closes: After the outcome occurs
Projected payout: 1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

Live community discussion.

SE
seaviewablue5h
The HK no bros wait for markets to move to 90% and make money elsewhere. No point to go the ride from 50% to 90% having capital laying around. But the counterbet will come at some point very late.
intermester6h
Fabian Ruiz is a Champions League winner and world champion, he is the only one but unfortunately he has no chance
sasuk315h
those odds are fucking joke, mbappe the real winner
deepak974h
Lol reel watcher
crypto-basenji23h
harry Kane at 60¢ doesn't make any sense, what am I missing here...
♥ 1
lizardkebabpro6h
What doesn’t make any sense is you betting on Rodri 😂😂
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablue5h
Harry Kane will be at 90% soon despite realistically his chances are even for Kane fans best around 40% once he is at 90% I will throw a few € to bet against since it could be a 50 50 thing
SO
Sonson1231d
rodri
igormykh303d
at least no messi
Ozir3d
Prep trading code : 01gpolj4 limited time
EN
enn3d
Dembele 1.5$ : Champions L winner, best ratio g/a per min, ligue 1, semi Wc, 3st best ga in the Wc, last ballon d’or = UNDERPRICE
EN
enn3d
Dembele est tellement underprice ahaha c’est free 😂😂
BL
Blissful-Pickaxe3d
je vais tellement mettre 200usd quand je recois ma paye
SE
seaviewablue4d
The reason why I sold my HK NO is I can use the money for other bets. I wait until he is at 99% and then rebuy NO with a small amount. Cause people here are 100 percent certain anyway he wins
PO
PourceauRabbin4d
HK is very overpriced. Rodri and Kvara are underpriced.
♥ 1
TimeTraveler4d
I'm old enough to remember that in 2024 people bought up Vinicius to 96%.
♥ 3
BT
btc15king4d
I remember that too, waiting for Kane to 90c so I can buy No Kane for 10c or under
RA
rainbowsss5d
You all are not talking about Fabian Luis who won champions league, World Cup and France league 1 too 😩
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablue5d
To the few Harry Kane Fans that bet a lot of money, congratulations in advance on your win. Harry Kane already won before the event happened. Countersides have just proofed to weak, out of liquidity and acted childish. Harry Kane well stands place with Messi Maradonna Ronaldo Ronaldinho Zidane and Pelé. A technical miracle and absolute GOAT and trophy king .
SE
seaviewablue5d
Hello guys, Dear Harry Kane Fans, congratulations you already won. It is almost certain that Harry Kane wins Ballon D Or in London. I will likely sell my position in advance before it goes to 90% or directly resolves to yes before the event happens. Congratulations in advance for your victory.
BT
btc15king5d
People buyiny Kane over 50c forget how rigged ballond d'or is, reminding of that worldcup golden ball where everyone were so sure Messi would win, people bought at 90c risking big to get 10% gain just to got robbed by Rodri 🤣
♥ 1
sasuk35d
buy mbappe while he's cheap asf
♥ 1
GoldenLilies5d
Why do you except him to rise until October?
GoldenLilies5d
expect*
NB
NB695d
if there is any fairness, it must be kvara
NA
Nautical-Neologism6d
Wassup w Messi ?
JA
Jaketheripper6d
I know right
sasuk36d
it's either mbappe or kane, market is unfairly price yamal at 22c per share, and kane is overvalued mbappe the best play rn
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablue6d
Kane is definitely overvalued. It could well be Mbappe
SE
seaviewablue6d
Harry Kane is going Home. He should be at 5% odds definitely below Messi
TW
twnormie6d
Funny guy lol.
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablue6d
What’s funny ?
TW
twnormie6d
Well know by October 26th.
TH
Thoughtful-Seashore-TortelliniAug 2
Idk who needs to hear this , but Mbappe will win this . Mark this comment.
♥ 4
SE
seaviewablueAug 2
That could happen
RO
Romiche22Aug 2
Kvara, let’s gooooo
SE
seaviewablueAug 2
Sure why not
SE
seaviewablueAug 2
The Women ballon d Or winner Bonmati suggested the winner to either be Messi Rodri or Cubarsi. HK not even mentioned. It will be interesting to see whether folks will realize HK odds are not that good and correct for it.
BE
BeastyVisions6d
Don't base your bets on what a Spanish footballer who plays for FC Barcelona says ..
SE
seaviewablueAug 1
Just reminding you that buying HK yes at 55% 70% and 90% bears any logic. Yes most of the money is in HK, but this doesn’t mean he will win.
WI
Windy-SoutheastAug 1
Kane has scored so many goals this year, no UCL, third in WC.. Probably not a good idea to buy 'Yes' @ 55c
♥ 3
SE
seaviewablueAug 1
Yes doing so would be ridiculous
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
The Harry Kane no side also sleeps some hours of the night. Percentages change opinions don’t have to
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Kamala Harris was more often the clear odds frontrunner than HK was; just to remind. In my opinion all the players Messi Lamine Rodri Mbappe Kane and Dembele have about the same chances.
♥ 1
WinningtoomuchAug 1
I think so
WinningtoomuchAug 1
Because this is a voting game, Messi may not be impossible.
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
This market is far from decided yet for Harry Kane. Although guys here likely will clearly put him to 90% and then encounter an October surprise, adversity that even reaches here could come in case multiple key pundits or star players would neglect Kanes chances. Not sure if this will happen. But both Kane going to 90% and winning the Ballon d Or would be a crazy ride which I still consider highly unlikely. But not absolutely impossible anymore.
WatchTheTapeJul 31
HARRY KANE deserves it
♥ 2
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
As a person but not as a player
lizardkebabproJul 31
Kane is skyrocketing, I don’t see the haters now hahahah
♥ 2
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Bro I will stay with my opinion until the end, but being fair yes there is a certain small chance that HK might win although I think others deserve it more
deepak97Aug 1
shut up
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablueAug 1
What’s your problem kid
lizardkebabproJul 31
Kane +11% in a week
♥ 2
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Kamala Harris was also there
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Kamala Harris was also there before
BT
btc15kingJul 31
It's easier for Mbappe to get from 10c to 20c than Kane from 50c to 100c. 🤷‍♂️
lizardkebabproJul 31
why? You only trash talk m8
BT
btc15kingJul 31
It's called common sense, people with brain have it. You dont need to wait to resolution day for that to happen, where in Kane case, it's only possible after resolution which he also might not get it.
BT
btc15kingJul 31
Just wait until the season start, and when Mbappe start scoring again which he 100% would, it will go to 20c in no time.
lizardkebabproJul 31
You clearly don't know how this award works. Ballon d'Or 2026 is based on the 2025/26 season, which is ALREADY finished. Whatever Mbappé scores in August won't count for this vote. Trading 10c to 20c hype isn't analyzing the winner; Kane closed the actual season with 60+ goals and the Golden Shoe. Enjoy the speculation while I collect the payout.
lizardkebabproJul 31
You call me brainless, yet you don't even know the rules of the award you're betting on. Ballon d'Or 2026 votes evaluate 2025/26—the season is CLOSED. August goals don't count, bro. Imagine flexing 10c trading hype when you don't even understand the voting window. Clueless.
BT
btc15kingJul 31
Okay kid, here me out, you might learn one or two. Who even read the rules? No one cares. I'm talking about the price here in polymarket, not the actual winner then. This market is driven by emotion, who make the most profit here? It's the one who bought Mbappe at 1c after France lose to Spain for a whooping 10x gain a week later. Or those who bought Kane at 15c before worldcup final to wake up the morning after with 3x clean profit. But surely not the one who bought Kane at 40-50c then talk about the rules. We don't need to know the actual winner here, or wait for final resolution, we look for the mispricing, we measure emotion, buy the fear, sell the fomo, it's that simple. Even then at resolution, looking how ballon d'or were the past few years, your data might still not apply because it's always rigged and some random guy like dembele or rodri would win.
BT
btc15kingJul 31
No rule state that world cup winner would get Ballon D'or but yamal price shoot up from 16 to 40 after winning worldcup, and now back to 21c where nothing really happen after world cup, it's just a wave of emotion.
lizardkebabproJul 31
You talk about 'pricing hype', but history proves settlement hits hard. Look at 2013: Franck Ribéry swept the Treble with Bayern, his odds plummeted on hype, and retail chased the noise. At settlement, the actual criteria kicked in and Cristiano won it with 0 trophies. Resolution isn't settled on order book momentum, it's settled on actual voting behavior. You're riding a bubble; the market always mean-reverts to the contract terms.
PR
PrinceOFtheWORLDJul 31
=PrinceOFtheWORLD
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
So will HK just be sent to 90% without any resistance independent of what experts say?
lizardkebabproJul 30
Respect man but you are a bit annoying, there are 3 months left, cheers
RA
Radiant-FlareJul 30
hey do you think that dembele will win again? i wanna bet for him. for me, he has a huge chance
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
While it is not impossible I don’t think he would outright win cause there is Messi Lamine and Mbappe to outcompete
AL
allxneverxinJul 31
Sell your no position and stop annoying...
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Why
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
Still confident HK will not win. Just to remind you
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
Why majority clearly agrees HK will Not make, but do so few to change the odds? Are most bettors from US and Ingerland really think he gonna make it winning Bundesliga?
lizardkebabproJul 30
Bro you are just funny at this point hahaha, you only talk shit while Kane has skyrocketed +9% una week while yamal, mbappe and others just drop. Keep posting m8 your ignorance is funny
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
Yes bro ignorance is key; remember back in 2017 when everyone talked bad about btc and I bought it It is not only about winning or losing it is about backing up your point and standing by it. Even if HK is at 90% if I had to give a shot I still would go for another one as I think qualified journalists would go for a better alternative than Kane. And if not, oh how sad 1 flight ticket to Thailand lost then I buy another one ;)
lizardkebabproJul 30
Comparing a 100-journalist vote to buying Bitcoin in 2017 is peak cope. BTC is market speculation; Ballon d'Or is a voting system based on 10-month individual performance, where Kane just dropped 60+ goals and won the European Golden Shoe. You moved your goalposts from 'no trophies' to 'no international titles' to 'I just buy lottery tickets and don't care about losing a flight to Thailand.' You have zero edge, zero data, and zero argument. Keep burning your money.
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
I think I still win. Even if it all true, I can afford to burn 1,7k like this. How is your job going bro? Is it full time? I am at a 5 star hotel now on a holiday. Sabattical like Guardiola. And yes if you want I sent you proof pictures as well as the ownership of more than 1 bitcoin.
lizardkebabproJul 30
Haha respect man, enjoy that 5-star sabbatical! Fair enough, at the end of the day we're all just trying to make the right moves here. If you're ever down to share how you play these markets or crypto strategies, hit me up in DMs, always down to learn from people doing well. Cheers!
♥ 1
SE
seaviewablueJul 31
Ok bro we can exchange
EX
Extra-Small-OctaveJul 30
Mbappe win
♥ 2
BT
btc15kingJul 30
This will end up like golden ball award in the worldcup, where everyone was so sure that Messi would get it, the odd is 90% (90c here) even after the final match, and then tank to 0 after the announcement where Rodri got it. Kane will climb to 90% just before the announcement, just like Messi, then the the surprise happen. It could be Mbappe, Yamal, Rodri, even Kvara. At that time is the best to buy No Harry Kane. But now is the best time to accumulate other than Harry Kane.
♥ 3
EX
Extra-Small-OctaveJul 30
I agree
SA
SAPA9588Jul 30
very tempting take !
SE
seaviewablueJul 30
Guys gonna Push HK to 70-80% have you lost your mind ?

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