Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
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This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM.
In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".
Live community discussion.
- EA
Kvara!!
- RE
67 for kane what a joke 😱
cry more mboobie fan 🤣🤣
- MA
Harry Kane at 67 lol
♥ 1 - MA
Fabian Ruiz gonna shock the world
♥ 1 
Fabian. He won everything this year. He even sitted Pedri on the WC.
♥ 1- MA
He gonna shock the world if he wins
Not even top10 for me
- RE
Ok ballon d'or is for yamal or mbappe 💯. Over for kane.
leo messi not again
mbappe reprice coming, secure your shares in the best play rn!
♥ 4- RE
Mbappe it's min 25% chance. Best player actually.
♥ 2 he is not a good player, killed madrid for 2 years, he left PSG and they won everything. Luis enrique said it once...
♥ 1
no soy del madrid pero no entiendo lo de mabppe, pichichi de la liga 25/26, maximo goleador champions 25/26, maximo goleador de la historia de los mundiales con solo 3 jugados y bota de oro del mundial 2026 todo en la misma temporada.. no ha ganado nada con el madrid..pero su nivel es indiscutible, ser pichici en la misma temporada en los 3 grandes torneos a la vez.... no es facil ni lo hace cualquiera... ahi lo dejo.
- RE
Mbappe 50/50 with kane so mbappe is undervalued.
♥ 1 - MA
Harry Kane at 66 is a joke
♥ 2 - RE
No goal and 66% haha. Dump coming hehe. Mbappe gonna replace him
Don't cry here
- RE
It's a joke. Bayern win 5-1 and no goal for Kane. Mbappe gonna replace him
- RE
Let's see in october for result... Iy's just not normal kane at 66%...
- RV
No way………. The results end july.. mbappe could score 100 goals in 3 matches he’s not winning
Even in july, Kane should not win it, Mbappé top scorer of la Liga, UCL and WC + Record of goals at the WC... Kane just scored many goals in the shittiest league... Anyway we'll see
- MA
He not gonna win it tf is pokal cup ballon dor does not care about pokal cup 😭🙏🏻 it is gonna be kvara yamal, dembele or mbappe
- MA
I mean go look up at Fabian Ruiz achievements and performances last season
♥ 1 niga ballon'dor is for 2025/26 season. not for 2026/27 reel watcher mboobie fams
- RE
Do you really think the current form doesn’t play a part in the jury’s minds when it comes to voting? Kane hasn’t scored, whilst Mbappé already has four goals...
- RE
Mbappe should be 30% and kane 20% wtf
♥ 3 10 times higher is completely crazy, I think that some whales are messing with the market.
♥ 1- RE
Yep. They are playing their last cards... Another mbapoe hat trick snd it's over for kane.
Lol reel watcher mboobie fans
- RV
Mbappe will not win the Ballon D’or. It ends on July 19th. No way ever he wins.
- RE
End july but... In the head of judge, they will see a scorer in fire and a guy who don't score since worldcup.. . It's favorable to mbappe. Better dynamic.
Another incredible hat trick, no one is stopping Mbappé from getting the ballon d'or
♥ 2- RE
Mbappe is the favorite. 3 goals yesterday while kane is absent. At 7% it's gonna be good profit.
♥ 1 - RE
Mbappe favorite for ballon d'or this year
- MO
Why kvaratskhelia only 2% that crazy
- MO
Khivicha should be 4% or more
♥ 1 - PO
According to an AI simulation modeling the voting behavior of the 100 Ballon d'Or journalists — including historical voting patterns, World Cup impact, individual performance, UCL performance and narrative effects — the current estimated probabilities for the 2026 Ballon d'Or are: **Kvaratskhelia — 33%** **Rodri — 30%** **Harry Kane — 27%** **Others — 10%** Much closer than the prediction markets currently suggest.
Lol it's a world cup year kvara hasn't been in the world cup
- PO
That's exactly what the simulation accounts for. A World Cup year doesn't mean the Ballon d'Or automatically goes to the World Cup Golden Ball winner. In 2012, journalists still had Messi comfortably ahead of Iniesta despite Spain winning the Euros and Iniesta being Player of the Tournament. Kvara was UCL Player of the Season for the UCL winner. The whole question is how heavily voters penalize missing the WC — 33% means it's a major handicap, not an automatic disqualification.
- RE
Kane at 61% 🤡 yamal favourite( wc winner and ligua mvp) then mbappe (wc+champions ligue+liga best scorer) . Repricing is coming. Kane should have 25-30% max.
♥ 2 Idiot Reel watcher Harry Kane has European Golden Boot, Bundesliga Champion,Dfb Pokal, German Super cup champion,7 g+a in World Cup, Mboobie has 0 trophies in 2 years So shut up reel watcher , Harry Kane has scored the 73 goals and has 7 assist in 2025/26 season which is 2nd best in a football season behind Messi.
♥ 1- RE
Lol GL kane will never win the ballon d'or. Bundesliga trophy 🤡 no worldcup, no champion's league... Yamal still the favorite.
- RE
Mbappe reprincing is coming hehe.
- RE
Kane at 61% is a joke and mbappe at 6% haha... 50/50 so mbapoe repricing coming. Yamal is undervalued too. Worlcup winner and ligua MVP. Still the favorite.
♥ 1 mbappe pump is inevitable
♥ 2
Stop spaming
crazy how at top 3 market mbappe is 2x higher than rodri but here they've got the same chances position yourself accordingly and buy mbappe yes
♥ 2- RE
Mbappe undervalued as fuck. Repricing incoming.
♥ 2 Mboobie Lovers 😂😂
Kane tiene las mismas posibilidades que los demás, esta muy parejo todo esto
kvaradona
- SR
Fabian Ruiz, the only one to win Worldcup, Champion's league and national league this year.
♥ 2 - RE
Fabian ruiz can win too. Should have 10% min. Reprincing inevitable before the vote.
Harry Kane 73 gol, 8 assist in 65 match
♥ 1yamal and rodri higher than mbappe is ridicilous
mbappe 0 trophies, ofc is lower
♥ 2and sorry for ur loss
- MO
Yamal should be higher rodri not really
tiktok knowledge
yamal shouldn't
juuude
mbappe at 7 is free, everything else is overprice
♥ 2- RE
Yep true. 20-25% before the vote.
Harry Kane gave no more than domestic titles to Bayern, >50¢ for Kane is ridiculous, sooner rather than later you will realize how dumb you are buying kane this high
♥ 6Kane 73 gol, 8 assist in 65 match
♥ 1
Of course you are right, Bundesliga players almost never won without winning international titles. The last time happened was in early 80s with Rummenigge, now Bundesliga is much worse, no chance at all.
- RE
Harry kane have been manipulated by whales. Now they gonna sell on you until the vote. Normal odd for harry is 20-25 max. Don't be fool. Mbappe and yamal have more chance tbh.
- RE
Harry kane have been manipulated by whales. They gonna sell slowly until vote. Normal odd is 25-30% max.
♥ 1 - RE
Harry kane have been manipulated by whales. Now they gonna sell slowly until the vote. Normal odd is 25-30% for harry. Don't be fool.
♥ 1 - RE
Harry kane at 60% what a joke hahaha and mbappe at 7%... Free money. Kane will never get the ballon d'or. It's mbappe or yamal.
♥ 1 kane at 62 is a joke
♥ 2What's joke about that??
♥ 1- RE
Yes joke. 20% max chance. Overvalued.
buy mbappe before it's cheap lol
♥ 1Mboobie lover shut up
♥ 1haha
- RE
Mbappe is free money actually. 20% before vote closed...
- MO
Dembele is to understand rated he surely gonna rise
♥ 1 - NO
I think Dembele might suprises everyone. he is the main guy psg won the champions league, he has 6 goals in the world cup, he has suoper cup to play for. if he scores atleast two and psg win, then look out for him. he has the bfrench cup to play for before the season start with all this and a good start to d season, you cant tell me he is not winning.
♥ 2 Don't watch football through reels
- BE
Dembele is so underpriced. Im 100% sure his price is gonna skyrocket in the following weeks. He can easily outpass Rodri
♥ 3 
add lebron james
♥ 1lamine and rodri should not even be on a debate, kane if overpriced asf mbappe hte best option here, i won't get tired saying this
-6k
so what
- SE
The HK no bros wait for markets to move to 90% and make money elsewhere. No point to go the ride from 50% to 90% having capital laying around. But the counterbet will come at some point very late.
Fabian Ruiz is a Champions League winner and world champion, he is the only one but unfortunately he has no chance