CCulture

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

$4.3KVolume

Mar 2, 2027Resolves

156dleft

28Comments

Price history

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "NoSmoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graphdata/GlobalMeanEstimatesbasedonLandandOceanData/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Market open: —
Market closes: After the outcome occurs
Projected payout: 1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Mar 2, 2027, 4:59 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

Live community discussion.

XI
xiaodouzi2d
Temperature of where? It’s not hot at all this year in China. So if China is taken into consideration, it probably ranks 6th or lower.
iglibergJul 12
i have heard that France is "burining"
EX
exmateriaeJun 27
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
FA
Famous-FallacyJul 4
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
SH
Short-TunicJun 24
6 or lower
SH
Short-TunicJun 17
6
EX
exmateriaeJun 9
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
studmuffin6969May 22
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
♥ 1
CL
ClimatologistMay 8
Seems fairly priced
♥ 1
FA
Famous-FallacyMay 8
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
DYANA41800Feb 23
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
♥ 1
ZW
ZwickyDec 30
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
♥ 7
Roro22Dec 31
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
♥ 9
TE
TESTENAOMEXADec 31
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
♥ 1
ZW
ZwickyJan 1
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
EiaJan 11
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
GE
GennedyFeb 10
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
AC
Academic-ForecastMay 27
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
iglibergDec 26
hell warm
Pasun4ikMar 17
haaaa
0xf35jsv80u3nos0uvsdDec 18
go 2026
♥ 1
ChainPunkTraderNov 29
if you actually look at wallet activity instead of comments you see a different picture
NX
nxsuDec 2
Brother you are the only comment
♥ 32
IM
Immaterial-DoctorateDec 9
Lol
♥ 2

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