US recession by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Market open
- Sep 29, 2025, 10:27 PM
- Market closes
- After the outcome occurs
- Projected payout
- 1 minute after closing
This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 31, 2027, 12:00 AM.
In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".
Live community discussion.
- BR
OMG
Polymarket selling dollar for 80 cents. What a deal
- BR
incredible
Yolft is giving 80% chance to this happening
♥ 1- CR
Great market
- CR
hi
- BO
small chance for recesion in this year
♥ 1 WAR IS OVER! S&P IS UP, OIL IS DOWN. LITTLE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS NOW FOREVER OPEN. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
♥ 2
HAHAAHAHAAH good one
Can you add Eurozone recession?
its very possible, yes yes,
- AS
hehehe
- HD
Today is the day the last oil tankers from the Gulf reach Europe, and although we now know that they will be resuming, it won't be immediate. The US is in 2 days. Will be a very nasty April and May
♥ 1 - VI
The market is pricing today's data, not what's about to come. That's the gap. The economic damage from $112 oil hasn't shown up in any data yet. The Q1 GDP estimate coming this month will be the first read that captures even part of the war's impact, and Q2 will be the full hit.
♥ 4 - VI
oil-driven inflation is about to spike. They can't hike because the economy is slowing.
♥ 3 - VI
Every recession in the last 50 years (1973, 1979, 1990, 2008) had an oil shock as a major trigger, and the current shock is bigger than 1973 in percentage terms. Gas is over $4. Consumer spending is the first thing that breaks under energy inflation.
lol
Odd on other book still 28-30% and Trump just announced two week ceasefire. Odd should be down not up.
♥ 1- VI
its not about the cease fire, your thinking short term.
- VI
I'm gonna buy every dip in the 30s. this is a EASY play. your gonna hear in the news.... inflation inflation inflation.
♥ 9 Sure mate. Go big or go home.
;))
- VI
we will see in 1 month. Every recession in the last 50 years (1973, 1979, 1990, 2008) had an oil shock as a major trigger
♥ 1 - VI
The single best trade on the board right now is #1 — US Recession YES at 32 cents.
♥ 6 - EC
High oil prices caused the 2008 and 2022 recessions. Even if the war ended today gas and diesel will be elevated all year. GDP gets hit hard because people are spending more on energy than goods and services. Q3 and Q4 GDP likely negative which would get this to resolve Yes
♥ 11 
A full-blown recession would require a much larger shock than we’re currently seeing,
♥ 1- KI
yall how much wood could a wood chuck wood if a wood chuck could chuck wood. Tip for da answer!!
Bond market:Epstein client list released by June 30?
$@Bond market:Epstein client list released by June 30?
- FI
if a recession happens u lose ur money either way what difference does it make LOL
♥ 2 
you lose it double
cant believe
- CO
jffkjnkf
♥ 1 - CO
yes or no
no I belive nooooo
- EM
yes recession
could be used as hedge to stock market results no?
♥ 8- RU
Seems like there are better ways of doing that
♥ 2 
Commercial real estate implosion + regional bank failures cascade.
♥ 3
Hey stranger we meet again! go get water before starting a trade
♥ 12
There will be a negative gdp this year but the problem is - we need 2 negative gpd reports in a year to declare recession and i don’t think it will happen so it’s not worth entering YES here
♥ 8
The 2 negative gdp reports is not a mandatory requirement for the NBER to declare the recession to be officially in place. 2022 was not declared as recession despite having two quarter negative but 2020 was declared recession way before. If a few countries cash in their us dollars and accelerate the decline of the us bankruptcy a little bit more it could be well enough to declare it. And there are several right now talking about protecting themselves after recent events regarding Greenland and the dementia patient in the white house
Yeah, but if there is 1 quarter with a negative print, then this contract could double in value.
♥ 2
Put a big ripe banana in your butt if you voted yes
♥ 1- PA
This comment aged like a banana
♥ 2 - JE
This is a no but not worth entering here
♥ 1 
Ty for the money. Usa has lost 40t jobs per month this fall.
- HA
pro fireplace gg
OECD, H1 2025: "Excluding AI-related investments, which continued to boom, GDP contracted by 0.1%."
If it was public sector growth you'd be applauding, jackass
hell yea
- EX
financial market will get the most terrify shock in history
♥ 9