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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

$8.6KVolume
Dec 31, 2026Resolves
161dleft
15Comments
Price history
100%75%50%25%0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market open
Jan 30, 2026, 12:03 AM
Market closes
After the outcome occurs
Projected payout
1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

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Live community discussion.

  • SI
    SIMOMEGA4d

    how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol

  • DontTrustMeJul 6

    Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.

    ♥ 1
  • SI
    SIMOMEGAJun 25

    dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?

  • ProofOfWorkJul 2

    For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control

  • SI
    SIMOMEGAJul 2

    what are the downsides of a merge then?

  • BE
    BeyondAverage4ckMay 26

    The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened

  • SI
    SIMOMEGAJun 23

    How?

  • VI
    Virtual-QueenMar 12

    Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.

    ♥ 2
  • ProofOfWorkJul 2

    He would gain control.

  • FR
    Front-MorbidityFeb 10

    H

  • FR
    Front-MorbidityFeb 12

    G Wells