TTech

GPT-6 released by…?

$6.5KVolume

Dec 31, 2025Resolves

Todayleft

53Comments

Price history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market open: Aug 7, 2025, 8:45 PM
Market closes: After the outcome occurs
Projected payout: 1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2025, 12:00 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

Live community discussion.

kitn6d
There has always been different teams for pre-training and post-training. GPT 5.x models are just GPT 5 model but with good post training. OpenAI will have to release GPT 6 which will be a completely different model all together and will outperform current Fable. They need it since Opus 5 is going to outperform 5.6 that will be coming this month or by mid August for sure.
♥ 1
SickandTired6d
What does Opus have to do with OpenAI? You are just making shit up
♥ 4
SickandTiredJul 14
GPT-6 ain't launching publicly by by Sept. 30. They just rolled out GPT 5.6
♥ 1
kitnJul 15
different teams for training and post-training stuff. they need to out-bench Fable 5. they might launch it this month only.
SickandTiredJul 15
Where are you getting this info from? Random Twitter anons? It's totally made up, not credible at all. OpenAI is not going to cannibalize its GPT 5.6 sol launch by launching a new series altogether within a weeks of launch. It's not going to happen! GPT 6 is coming in early 2027
♥ 1
kitn6d
are you fr? Opus 5 is coming this month for by the mid of next. You think it is not gonna be better than 5.6 Sol. They need something that can outperform Fable. GPT 5.6 is the last 5.x model. early 2027 is just too late.
SickandTired6d
What does Opus have to do with OpenAI? You are just making shit up.
♥ 1
NE
neonloop9994Jul 13
way better than trying to trade yourself
FU
fudcJul 9
rewrapped from US
PL
Planet55Apr 19
Can someone tell me if the June 30th odds are so high because people are expecting spud to be gpt6 and it releasing next week or because people expect it to release shortly after?
♥ 1
iutwpfalApr 26
People said I was crazy when I said this was a good no buy because the market couldn't have been that dumb but yeah, I guess it was exactly that dumb
♥ 1
toutiegeApr 12
GPT6's technology is utterly uninnovative and they dare not release it，comparing it to DeepSeek is a joke.
♥ 1
GO
GothABGApr 29
anything china releases is largely just rewrapped from US companies
♥ 1
DO
dodododo23Mar 3
Thry are going to release gpt 5.4 then mybe gpt 6
CL
ClarksFeb 25
Stacking No shares on a March release because hallucinating a model launch that soon is the real AI dream. 96.4 cents for a month of waiting is a 📉 textbook liquidity park for anyone not expecting a miracle.
EN
Enes369Jan 31
After superbowl adds exposure they will definitly release Gpt-6 (even thought it will just be 5.3) marketing
CO
CompanjoJan 26
Development already started, it will most likely be launched in 2026
compulsiveGamblingLLCDec 23
openAI is supposed to release GPT 5.5 sometime late Q1, therefore its pretty unlikely they release gpt 6 before end of 2026.
♥ 1
SH
ShaqNotDumbNov 19
5.1 Just released!!
ZA
Zak911Dec 29
Can you please tip me 1 dollar so i can try this platform. Appreciate it
SK
SkrzacikJan 24
i can tip you 1 dollar after i have had your sister
♥ 3
SylvieHartNov 9
GPT-6 could be released by OpenAI, but the timeline and advancements remain uncertain as AI development continues at a rapid pace.
KiddosssNov 7
Insider new GPT 6 is coming way earlier
♥ 2
SH
ShaqNotDumbNov 11
Same, i already tested it :P It's coming by February / Beginning of March :)
TH
TheGoonMasterJan 22
U guys r rping and should let me join; I'd like to take it in a more sexual direction
♥ 1
EA
Easy-Going-BehalfMar 19
dumb
PR
prosir2Oct 26
Insider new GPT 6 is coming way earlier
PR
prosir2Oct 26
follow @VraserX on X
CharlesBarkleeNov 4
interesting, because you bought the later date ;)
♥ 1
XenyNov 22
vraser is garbo info source
SH
Shiny-HuntOct 20
OpenAI will release GPT-6 around Christmas. They're losing market share and they absolutely need a big win after GPT-5's flop.
Poli.carpoOct 22
Thank you for the illuminating market analysis
♥ 5
SH
Shiny-HuntOct 22
You're welcome.
cqkOct 18
No GPT-6 this year: Sam Altman to Tyler Cowen
♥ 1
lmtfaloneOct 17
I love ai marketing. Self selects for the most gullible people online.
♥ 1
lmtfaloneOct 17
Markets*
SA
SantosbantosOct 16
Confirmed by one of Openai's investors
♥ 1
SA
SantosbantosOct 17
says Brad Gerstner - Partner @altcap (Investors in OpenAI)
♥ 1
SH
ShaqNotDumbOct 16
Its happening!
♥ 1
SH
ShaqNotDumbOct 16
[link removed]
♥ 1
ZE
ZeotSep 19
Very interesting how this possibility is so undervalued, considering many insider talks: [link removed]
♥ 1
lmtfaloneSep 22
QAnon for AI bros, love to see it
ZE
ZeotSep 23
excelent argument, keep funding cheap yes
lmtfaloneSep 30
Lol, buy more bitch
ZE
ZeotOct 3
WOW, excelent argument
ZE
ZeotOct 3
im thinking you are a kid who just steal her mammas card
ProfessionalPunterOct 8
while i agree that oai is likely targeting a release by this date, you are failing to consider that they have constant delays for things. gpt5 was pushed back for months. same with the open weight model and the browser.... you have to factor in their delays after you estimate their "target" date
lmtfaloneSep 7
Why would they?
♥ 1
s1gAug 8
"GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count)" whoever writes these rules is retarded
♥ 11
TozAug 9
lol
RA
RatAttackAug 16
It got corrected few days back
♥ 1
s1gAug 17
good to see you here mr. weather
BI
birgitAug 8
"GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution." looks like a typo. Rules authors should have to post collateral that they lose if a clarifying change is made to the rules. Sloppy, predatory, not what this site wants.
♥ 9
DO
Don7mAug 8
The Only eth

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