TrendingSportsCryptoTechEconomyBusinessCultureWorldScienceRewards
← Markets/Economy
EEconomy

Fed rate cut by...?

$34.0KVolume
Jan 8, 2027Resolves
125dleft
31Comments
Price history
100%75%50%25%0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market open
Dec 16, 2025, 7:36 PM
Market closes
After the outcome occurs
Projected payout
1 minute after closing

This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 8, 2027, 4:59 AM.

In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".

Related markets

All markets →
EEconomy
Fed rate hike by...?
SSeptember Meeting50%
OOctober Meeting62%
$28.5K Vol53d left
EEconomy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
00 (0 bps)93%
11 (25 bps)4%
22 (50 bps)2%
3
Fed rate cut by...?December Meeting · Yes
Market
Amount
Balance: …

Predict the outcome of real-world events — sports, markets and more — and trade your view.

Markets

All markets

Company

Help centerMarket rules

Legal

TermsPrivacy
© 2026 Ominari. All rights reserved.For entertainment. 18+. Trade responsibly.
HomeTrendingMy Profile
3 (75 bps)
1%
44 (100 bps)0%
55 (125 bps)0%
$513.4K Vol116d left
EEconomy
Fed rate hike in 2026?
YYes72%
NNo28%
$87.5K Vol94d left
Loading…

Live community discussion.

  • truthteller6d

    all the girls stepping out for a public affair

  • QM
    QMG-MACROAug 25

    How is anyone thinking of cuts

    ♥ 1
  • RE
    RektCitys1h

    not yet, we need a crash first

  • RE
    RektCitysJul 31

    they will probably just hold not hike but still if there is a market crash by the end of the year before the december meeting people will probably reprice this to 30 to 40% chance of cutting, even tho i think they wont cut this year there is still money to be made in case of a repricing

  • .asyverexJul 25

    amondablack?

  • RJC0001Jul 14

    Easy money on no cuts by December. Base case is hold, one hike is a possibility, but not a cut.

  • mudeok081Jul 4

    fed cut the rats

  • mudeok081Jul 3

    it wont cut until oct. mark it

  • JE
    Jeffrey-EinsteinJul 13

    r u dumb? yes.

  • CR
    CryptostradamusJun 27

    How can there be a December one if this market auto resolves to no after July?

    ♥ 1
  • mudeok081Jul 3

    magic man

  • PoorWithCryptosJun 17

    How is it possible there are 24% for October and 21% for December ??

    ♥ 2
  • NoAFrogJun 18

    you misunderstood the rates.... if you choose December that means that will cut rate AFTER october...But if the cut before october you will lose the December postion....

  • GA
    gambler925Jun 19

    low liquididty, ignore the retard with negative PNL who doesnt ave basic comprehension skills

  • QU
    QuietArbMar 18

    Still a lot of room for surprises.

    ♥ 2
  • EquoiaMar 12

    If new FED chairman Warsh will cut rate by end of meeting JUNE 16-17 this will be YES,right?

  • JE
    Jeffrey-EinsteinMar 12

    its a board who votes, yk that right, not just one guy

    ♥ 2
  • EquoiaMar 13

    Ok,if board will cut it on june meeting 16-17 is it yes, or until this meeting.

  • MA
    MaraqMar 17

    Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there

  • LO
    lox-frogsMar 18

    Which is nil?

  • MA
    MaraqMar 25

    no, more than 10% for sure

  • LO
    lox-frogsMar 30

    Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?

  • MA
    MaraqApr 3

    yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration

    ♥ 1
  • JE
    Jeffrey-EinsteinMar 7

    no

    ♥ 2
  • serghei5556Mar 7

    march of corse

    ♥ 1
  • Angel555Mar 13

    aprile

    ♥ 1
  • AC
    ac18Jan 15

    June Meeting

  • po-ly28-test-user1Jan 14

    NO (72% confidence). Summary: A rate cut must occur by April 29, 2026 to resolve Yes. After easing in 2025, officials are signaling patience early in 2026, and many forecasters expect the next move closer to midyear rather than March or April. Without a clear shock forcing action, an early spring cut appears unlikely, making no cut by the April meeting the base case. Strategy: Hold a core No position, add small event driven Yes hedges before CPI and jobs prints, and trim exposure after the January and March FOMC meetings. Key factors: unanimous top trader consensus favoring No, Fed projections pointing to only one cut in 2026 and typically later in the year, policymaker guidance favoring a pause early in 2026 following 2025 cuts, major sell side forecasts shifting expected cuts to mid 2026, and no current catalyst for an emergency intermeeting cut. Strength: Against 78%, For 48%. Quality: Good.

    ♥ 2
  • XL
    xlefgerxMar 5

    Deflation then cuts. I am confident that makes me look smart.

    ♥ 1
  • Angel555Mar 13

    80%

  • ElectreDec 20

    The Fed cut 25bps this month to finish the year with a cumulative 1.75% drop from the peak. Most experts say we're at "neutral" now, so don't expect more cuts until at least June 2026.